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Posted August 27, 2004

Not so obvious reasons why oil prices are high

By Leigh Montgomery

A recent Monitor article anticipates the global effects of $50-per-barrel oil prices. In summary, this is a macroeconomic benchmark that affects the world. Countries are affected based on how "oil intensive" their economies are - how much they need for transport and industrial production - as well as how much they import.

For example, Japan imports almost all of its oil, but has relatively low oil usage. European countries would suffer in the near term, as they import a lot of their oil as well. Other types of energy would increase in price along with demand - plants may switch to coal from oil, for example. But even though countries that export oil and other natural resources would be receiving more revenues, they would be impacted by economic recessions from the countries bearing the brunt of higher costs.

These and other details are the findings of a report published by the International Energy Agency about the impact of high oil prices on the world economy, concluding that sustained high prices would have a negative effect.

Other than increasing demand, there are several factors causing high prices. A Government Accountability Office report released in July 2004 stated that the increase in merger activity - over 2,600 in the past decade - created huge companies. Refineries prefer to do business with these companies; with their low credit risk and high quotas for orders. The report also mentioned the expansion of hypermarkets that sell gasoline - Wal-Mart, Costco and supermarkets - as another factor.

Posted August 24, 2004

Enduring champions

By Leigh Montgomery

In the 6th century BC, Milon of Kroton won the wrestling competition at five consecutive Olympic Games.
Two millennia later, there are still athletes who are competing for - and surpassing - Milon's multiple-Games appearances record.

This will be sprinter Gail Devers' fifth Olympics though sadly she will not be adding a fourth gold medal - for hurdles - to her collection.

This is also the fifth for Jan-Ove Waldner, table tennis legend!

Teresa Edwards, basketball player, is a five-timer, with her teammates benefiting from her experience, though Lisa Leslie has been to three Games.

Six-time Olympian Andrew Hoy regretably fell from his horse last week, an individual gold medal still elusive for him.

Merlene Ottey, a sprinter who is originally from Jamaica but now competing for Slovenia, will be in her seventh Olympics. She first appeared on the scene at the 1980 Moscow Games. She even said this week she has no plans to retire at present.

Should these world-class athletes stand down and allow others a crack at the Olympic experience? But seeing these champions again makes viewers realize: they are just that good.

And they can always aspire to a Carl Lewis streak: winning gold in four consecutive Games - for long jump - in 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996.

Posted August 17, 2004

FCC greenlights broader wiretap guidelines

By A. Messmer

Quoting FCC chairman Michael Powell, a Monitor article from Thursday states, “It’s probably the most significant paradigm shift in the entire history of modern communications, since the invention of the telephone.”

What is it?

VoIP, or Voice over Internet Protocol. To Jane and John Doe, it’s doing on a computer what one would normally do on a phone, and for a number of privacy advocates, it could be the latest hot button issue surrounding the FCC since that body approved new rules governing media ownership. It’s also the latest wrinkle in the blanket of measures to come out of the USA Patriot Act, the monolithic anti-terror law promptly passed by Congress in the wake of the 9/11 attacks.

Mr. Powell’s statement coming out of last week's FCC vote to extend wiretapping to the Internet adds, “Our support for law enforcement is unwavering; it is our goal in this proceeding to ensure that law enforcement agencies have all of the electronic surveillance capabilities that CALEA authorizes to combat crime and terrorism and support Homeland Security.”

CALEA is a 1994 law designed “to make clear a telecommunications carrier's duty to cooperate in the interception of communications for Law Enforcement purposes, and for other purposes,” and Internet, broadband, and “push-to-talk” technology now fall under its jurisdiction.

As CNET News has reported, “The vote comes five months after the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Administration and the Justice Department formally asked for guaranteed wiretapping access to broadband networks. If the FCC had done nothing, wiretaps would be possible but could be more difficult and time-consuming for police to carry out.”

The battlefield where opponents inevitably will be crossing swords with the federal ruling is the US Constitution, specifically the Fourth Amendment.

The text of this amendment reads as follows:

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

The CALEA legislation is incorporated into Title 47 of the US Code (the formal and up-to-date version of all US federal laws) with the chapter called “INTERCEPTION OF DIGITAL AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS”. According to this item from TechLaw Journal,

Nothing in this NPRM & DR, or the CALEA, expands the authority of law enforcement agencies to conduct surveillance. Wiretap authority, and pen register and trap and trace authority (including Internet addressing and routing information), are addressed in Title 18 (criminal code) and Title 50 (foreign intelligence surveillance). The CALEA, which is codified in Title 47 (communications), imposes requirements upon telecommunications carriers to design and modify their networks to facilitate lawfully obtained surveillance orders.


For further reference:

Small players want their share of air waves (The Christian Science Monitor)

Wiretapping legislation (EPIC)

Voice On the Net (VON) Coalition

The Age of Surveillance: The Aims and Methods of America's Political Intelligence System


Concrete thinking

By Leigh Montgomery

A number of building materials are experiencing shortages; from lumber to low-grade steel. Now, as a Monitor article describes, another shorfall is the subject of concern: cement.

There are several reasons for this. Cement is used in just about every type of construction, which is increasing. The economy is picking up, so there aren't enough ships to move it on time. Trucking it over great distances adds to freight weight, higher costs, and longer construction schedules. This may contribute to higher real estate prices in some high-growth areas, such as California and Florida. The Portland Cement Association has a good Q & A on many of these issues.

This prompts the obvious question: why can't they just mix more?

Demand outstrips supply, both here and in countries such as China, currently experiencing a construction boom and rapidly growing economy. And yet; The New York Times reported on Sunday that quite a few of these buildings in China are empty; that some developers simply stop making payments on the buildings if they cannot find a lessor. Banks there are reluctant to foreclose; not only due to legal entanglements but there is speculation that some of these developers are politically connected, the article says.

In short; it is because we are consuming more than we can produce - concrete is but one commodity where this is the case.

Posted August 12, 2004

Olympic-sized security

By Leigh Montgomery

A Monitor article Thursday describes a few of the advanced security measures in place for the 2004 Athens Games, which start tomorrow. One such measure is the use of AWACS to patrol the skies over Athens – an example of increasing use of military technology for non-military situations.

A considerable portion of the $1.5 billion spent on security is for 'digital security guards' – cameras equipped with speech-recognition software that will be looking for patterns of words and actions.

And remember the expression that something had 'gone the way of the zeppelin'? People used it to say that when popular pastimes or fads were no longer au courant. Well it seems that the zeppelin may be courant again, as a high-tech version of the airship has been revived and rented by Greece, complete with cameras and 'anti-chemical detectors' to circle Athens.

But apparently security has always been an issue at the Games. In the first modern Olympics in 1896 police, cavalry units and other guards were mobilized to form a 400-strong force at Athens to combat robbery, kidnapping and pickpocketing.


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